The Netherlands’ new populist government is proving to be a headache for the EU
Image of The Hague, Netherlands. image by Nikodi. Free for use under the Pixabay Content Licence
When people talk about the Netherlands, the fifth largest economy in Europe and an important player in the EU, many think of Amsterdam and erroneously think that it is its capital city. In fact, that is The Hague famous for its International Criminal Court. Amsterdam is known to be flexible and tolerant, always ready for new experiments and sometimes leading with radically new policies, like the past lax rules on drug use.
In Amsterdam, the Provos delivered street battles to the police in the youth revolt of the 1960s, while flower children preached “Make love not war”. Back then, Amsterdam was the magic centre for the new generation. A city for hippies preaching ‘flower power’, special coffee shops, so-called happenings, smoke bombs, sleep-ins, die-ins. Not the sort of city one would imagine to accept traditional, nationalistic right-wing principles.
Government of the Netherlands
The Netherlands is, like the UK, a constitutional monarchy. This means that the head of state is a king or queen whose powers are laid down in the constitution. However, the powers of the monarch are extremely limited. Under the constitution, the ministers, and not the monarch, are responsible for what the government does.
In November’s elections, the right-wing extremist Geert Wilders won 25% of the vote. He is the populist ‘strong man’ of a new coalition government in the capital, The Hague. The four-party coalition of Wilders’ Freedom Party, PVV, the right-wing Liberals, the Reform Party and the Peasants’ Party held a debate in the Dutch parliament on Wednesday 22 May about the appointment of a head of government. The debate in the run-up was whether the coalition is to be called a right-wing extremist government, as the Dutch Greens say, or whether the term ‘right-wing radical’ is more correct. The coalition has not yet agreed on a new head of government which Wilders will accept.
According to Politico, in an article entitled “Watch out Brussels, Geert Wilders’ new Dutch government is coming”, Euroscepticism and fiscal frugality will tie the hands of the new Dutch prime minister and Dutch diplomats in the EU. Like the UK formerly had, the Dutch have a reputation for punching above their nation’s weight in the negotiating room.
Politico is of the opinion that “They are now unlikely to have the same flexibility to wheel and deal as under outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, such as on joint borrowing for defence or expanding the EU’s upcoming budget”.
Wilders’ background
In 2023, Wilders already claimed the office of head of government for himself as the election winner. But his coalition partners wanted to avoid taking this risk. The BBC reported that the four-party talks on forming a right-wing coalition collapsed in February 2024 and, by March, Wilders had abandoned his bid to become prime minister.
He had been known as a hate preacher who every few years caused controversy by announcing a Quran burning that brought him headlines and death threats. The result of the reluctance to appoint Wilders head of government is a strange construction in which the political leaders are to give their instructions to the cabinet but the prime minister is still to be found from parliament.
Breaching Renew’s declaration
Euro news reports that the coalition agreement breaches a declaration Renew co-signed last week to “never cooperate nor form a coalition with the far right and radical parties at any level.”
The liberal party of Emmanual Macron in France also reacted indignantly to the right wing of its Dutch sister party. There could be a division of the liberal group in the European Parliament, which also includes the Austrian NEOS. The liberal people’s party VVD has never considered a coalition with the Social Democrats under Frans Timmermans or now under its new Kurdish-born chair, Dilem Yesilgöz. In Paris, people are concerned about their own presidential elections. Marine Le Pen could become French president in 2027 and, to continue the plunge, Donald Trump may also be sitting in the White House. This does not bode well for progressives.
Four-party government
How will a four-party government under Geert Wilders proceed in practice? Caroline de Gruyter, long-time correspondent of the liberal NRC-Handelsblatt, is cautious. The coalition pact calls for opt-outs from EU asylum policy, but how this could work is unclear.
According to Politico, under former PM Mark Rutte, the Netherlands became one of Europe’s most ambitious countries on climate. The new right-leaning coalition is putting a stop to that.
“Wilders’ PVV, which downplays the dangers of global warming, didn’t win the approval of its coalition partners for its demands to rip up the country’s climate targets and exit the Paris Agreement: ‘We stick to existing [climate] agreements,’ the four-party agreement reads. But the text gives no indication of how the new government plans to meet its commitments under national, European or international law.”
A sharp anti-migration policy is considered the most important novelty of the coalition agreement. Wilders has put his big goal, the prohibition of Islam, “in the ice cream parlour”, as he says. He has also shifted his former admiration for Vladimir Putin into the background. In The Hague, it seems certain that it will be the intellectual and political allies of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán who will be in power.
European countries with right-wing governments
In general, once right-wing candidates win elections and become heads of governments, their hard-core demands during electioneering are often softened. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni had demanded in her election campaign that refugee boats be stopped. Now, she is head of the right-wing government and more boats are arriving than before. She knows she needs the support of the Northern countries and is cooperating constructively in Brussels.
Geert Wilders has cancelled Nexit, the Netherlands’ exit from the EU. He has changed his former pro-Russian position in favour of a concession to Ukraine, in the transatlantic sense. It is to be hoped that the new Dutch government will U-turn on some other anti-EU policies once they take their seat at the top table.
Impact on Europe
In the future, EU summits will definitely be more laborious than before. When Rutte represented a position for the Netherlands, everyone knew it was constructive. It is no coincidence that the long-term prime minister will soon move to Brussels as NATO secretary general. On the other hand, the new Dutch head of government, whoever that will be, will have to consult his four party leaders in The Hague on every small detail. That will slow down decisions at EU level and make unanimity needed for essential changes even harder.
Before the 2024 elections, the broad picture of the EU was already one of confusion in many corners and in need of clear leadership. Caroline de Gruyter in a book entitled “The Habsburg Empire – Inspiration for Europe?” compares the EU with the multi-ethnic state of the Habsburgs. Nationalistic “bouts of fever” were opposed by a weak parliament and an ageing imperial house. De Gruyter does not want the parallels to be understood as a scenario of doom. According to her, until the war in 1914, the nationalists wanted to change the monarchy but did not want to leave it.
A rough ride for the EU
Today’s nationalists will want to stay in the EU as long as their citizens feel that they are benefitting from Europe. According to de Gruyter, the Habsburg Empire perished much more as a result of the devastating world war, rather than nationality conflicts.
The Russia-Ukraine war would therefore be more dangerous for Europe than EU member states under right-wing radical influence. However, the transatlantic traditions are not as strong everywhere as in the Netherlands. Solidarity with the Ukrainians’ struggle for survival and the defence of a united Europe will be less and less separable in the future. The current war’s weakening of security, member countries like the Netherlands, Hungary and Slovakia sowing disunity within the Visegrad4 countries, China’s growing influence and the potential for Trump as US president promise a rough ride for the EU.
Update by author: The Netherlands have, after protracted debates, appointed a PM to lead the government. The choice is a big surprise and unusual. Dick Spoof has never been active in politics or elected to office. He is a civil service official who led the Dutch intelligence service, counter-terrorism unit and immigration service..
As a Dutch PM has only restricted powers, this appointment could play into the hands of the right wing coalition. According to today’s ‘The European Correspendent’:“Concerns are already mounting that he might just be a puppet, allowing Wilders to pull the strings from behind the scenes without taking the blame.
Magdalena Williams and orginally published on Kent Bylines
